302: Estimating SCAP Capacity Needs 

Enrollment Projections

The OSPI “K-Linear Cohort Projection” model is used along with the space allocations described in this section to make the determination of eligibility.

K-Linear Cohort Projection Model

The K-Linear cohort projection model estimates future enrollment by tracking how groups of students (cohorts) historically progress from one grade to the next using average "survival ratios" (for example, the percentage of first graders who become second graders the following year). These ratios are applied to current enrollment to project grades 1-12, while kindergarten--because it has no preceding grade that is factored--is projected separately using a linear trend based on historical kindergarten enrollment. The result is a straightforward projection that assumes future enrollment pattern will generally follow recent historical trends. A school district's Form 1049 shows these projections and can be found in their ICOS profile. 

(Source: WAC 392-343-045)

Capacity needs are estimated based on:

• A three-or-five-year cohort survival enrollment projection for growth districts, whichever is greater (pursuant to Form 1049 )
• A three-or-five-year cohort survival enrollment projection for declining districts, whichever is lesser (pursuant to Form 1049)
• Actual enrollment of preschool students with disabilities, factored at fifty percent (pursuant to Form 1066)

(Source: WAC 392-343-045)

Space Allocation

These space allocations are used for purposes of determining eligibly for state funding assistance and do not necessarily reflect an accurate need of space for a school district as determined by the educational specifications. 

For state funding assistance purposes, per-student space allocations are factored with enrollment projections (see above) in accordance with the following

(Source: WAC 392-343-035)

Small High School Factor

Space allocation for state funding assistance purposes for districts with fewer than 400 students in grades 9-12 shall be computed as:

(Source: WAC 392-343-035)